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You’ve probably heard it said that half of all marriages end in divorce. It’s one of those statistics that gets repeated so often it’s taken as a fact; usually from a slightly gloomy relative at a wedding! The trouble is, it’s not quite true, with the real figure from the Office for National Statistics telling a more interesting story than the 50/50 myth suggests. This isn’t because the truth is necessarily more comforting, but because the question itself is more complicated than it first appears.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!According to the ONS, of the couples who married in 1998 (the most recent cohort to have reached the 25-year milestone) 40.7% of these had already divorced. That’s lower than the ‘one in two’ figure that most people quote but it isn’t a fixed number sitting in a database somewhere; it’s the outcome for one specific generation of marriages, which changes depending on the anniversary and particular cohort you’re looking at.
Part of the confusion comes from mixing up two different things: the divorce rate in any given year and the proportion of marriages that will eventually end in divorce over a lifetime. The first is a snapshot; in 2023 there were 102,678 divorces granted in England and Wales, with a divorce rate of around 8.6 per 1000 married men. The second is a projection that’s built by tracking real marriage cohorts over decades and estimating how the pattern is likely to continue. These two figures can move in different directions at the same time without contradicting each other. A single year can see divorces rise, whilst the long-term projected rate stays flat, or vice versa. This is because one is counting what happened this year and the other is estimating what’s likely to happen eventually to a whole generation of marriages. Neither one is ‘truer’ than the other; they’re just answering different questions.
Here’s where it gets genuinely interesting. ONS data tracks marriage cohorts by anniversary, and the shape of the risk changes depending on which anniversary you’re looking at. Of couples who married in 1963, 7.8% had divorced by their tenth anniversary, rising to 22.8% by their twenty-fifth. For couples who married in 1998, a higher proportion had divorced by the earlier anniversaries compared with the 1963 cohort, with 23.6% divorced by the tenth anniversary alone; suggesting that when a marriage runs into serious difficulty, it tends to happen sooner than it once did. That’s a genuinely different story to a single, flat percentage. It suggests that the first decade of marriage either carries proportionally more of the risk than it used to, or else, partners are less willing to stay in a negative marriage than they perhaps were once socialised to do.
Whilst marriages that make it past the ten or fifteen-year mark may be on steadier ground than everyone’s favourite headline figure implies; with 27.1% of the 1963 cohort divorcing by their sixtieth wedding anniversary, barely more than the 27.0% recorded at their fiftieth. By that point, widowhood accounts for a growing share of marriages ending, simply because mortality rises with age, which is a reminder that ‘how many marriages end in divorce’ is only ever one part of how marriages end at all. None of this is set in stone for any individual couple but it does explain why the same overall percentage can feel like it’s describing two quite different experiences depending on how long you’ve been married.
None of this is really about predicting whether any particular marriage will succeed; national statistics can’t tell you that. To be honest it would also be a strange way to think about your own relationship in such simplistic terms even if they could. What’s genuinely useful though, is understanding the legal position at each stage, because divorce isn’t automatically the next step even where a marriage has run its course.
Where a relationship is struggling, mediation is often worth considering before any formal decision is made. It brings both people together with an independent mediator to talk through concerns and options in a neutral setting, with a solicitor advising on the legal side as needed. Some couples choose an informal separation instead, sometimes whilst even still living under the same roof. It’s important to note here though that certain bodies, such as HMRC and the local council, will still need to be told about a change in circumstances. Other couples put a formal separation agreement in place, setting out arrangements for finances, property and children in writing. A separation agreement isn’t automatically legally binding but it does give both parties clarity; courts may also ask why its terms weren’t followed if matters end up in front of a judge later on.
In situations where divorce is the right option, the legal requirements are straightforward in principle: the marriage must have lasted at least a year and there needs to be a statement that it has broken down irretrievably. If both parties agree, the court can grant a conditional order without a hearing, with a final order (which legally ends the marriage) following approximately six weeks later. What’s easy to overlook is that matrimonial finances need to be agreed, or an application made to the court for a financial settlement, before that final order is made; leaving this until later can create real complications. You can read more about the full divorce procedure on our website.
When children are involved, arrangements for where they live and how much time they spend with each parent can be agreed directly, whether through mediation or formally by the court through a Child Arrangement Order (when applicable/necessary). Where there are concerns about safety, for a partner or a child, the court can also grant protective orders, including non-molestation orders preventing contact and occupation orders that will determine who can live in the family home. You can find out more here about how we support families through these matters.
Whatever stage you’re at, whether you’re planning a wedding and want to know more about your rights once married, curious about mediation, thinking through a separation agreement or already need to start the formal divorce process, a conversation with a solicitor doesn’t have to be a big step. At Wayman & Long we’re used to having exactly these kinds of conversation with couples across Suffolk and it’s rarely as overwhelming as people expect.
As members of Resolution, our approach favours working things out constructively wherever that’s possible, rather than assuming every conversation about separation or divorce has to end up adversarial. There’s no obligation and no assumption that asking a question means you’ve already decided anything.
Get in touch with our family law team to arrange an initial consultation or find out more about family law here and mediation, separation and divorce here.
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